Trump and the Russian Bounties to Kill US Soldiers

On June 26, 2020 the New York Times reported that, in the midst of the peace talks to end the war in Afghanistan, Russian military intelligence offered bounties to the Taliban for killing US troops. While Russia is understood by US and Afghan officials to support the Taliban, a bounty for killing US servicemen in Afghanistan would represent what the Times called "a significant and provocative escalation," and would be the first time Russian intelligence was "known to have orchestrated attacks on US troops."

Two days later Trump tweeted "Intel just reported to me that they did not find this info credible, and therefore did not report it to me or @VP," and that Pence had suggested it was “Possibly another fabricated Russian Hoax.” Congressional Democrats were briefed on the topic on  June 30 by White House staffers, but House Majority Leader Steny  Hoyer told reporters they "... did not receive any substantive new information." Hoyer also said he had told chief of staff Mark Meadows that he wanted to hear directly from the intelligence sources." On July 1 Trump again called the reports a hoax "by the newspapers and the Democrats," and asserted that "the intelligence people ... didn't believe it happened at all."

Background

Modern Russian military involvement in Afghanistan dates to Christmas Eve 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on the pretext of enforcing the Soviet-Afghan Friendship Treaty of 1978. Three days later Babrak Karmal, exiled leader of a faction of the Marxist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan, was installed as head of government. Soviet forces entering Afghanistan from the north augmented the more than 25,000 troops that had been airlifted in the initial invasion.

Afghani mujahadin resistance fighters believed themselves to be fighting a jihad or holy war against the mostly Christian Soviet invaders, and proved a fierce enemy. In 1987 the mujahadin received US shoulder-launched Stinger missiles, which enabled them to shoot down Soviet aircraft. With Mikhail Gorbachev now head of state in the Soviet Union, Soviet forces began withdrawing from Afghanistan in 1988 and had left by the following year.

The Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991, and in March 1992, Mohammad Najibullah, who with Soviet support had been President of the Republic of Afghanistan, agreed to resign to prepare the way for an interim government. A civil war broke out in the vacuum left by the departed Soviets, pitting as many as five or six mujahadin factions against each other. One faction was led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who according to the US was working for the Pakistani intelligence service (ISI). In 1994 the Islamic-inspired Taliban emerged as a significant force, conquering the city of Kandahar. The Taliban was made up primarily of Pashtun-speaking students (talib) from southern and eastern Afghanistan who had fought in the Sovient-Afghan war. Over the next several years, apparently with aid from Pakistan, the Taliban gained control of much of Afghanistan, culminating in 1996 with their takeover of Kabul, establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and moving the capital to Kandahar.

According to Human Rights Watch, shortly after the Taliban's takeover of Kabul they established direct military contact with Pakistan and turned over the military training camp at Rishikor, near Kabul. Between 1996 and 1998 Saudi Arabia was also a major supporter of the Taliban. In 1998 US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya were bombed by suspected followers of Saudi expatriate Osama bin Laden, who was being sheltered by the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the aftermath the US prevailed on Saudi Arabia to withdraw official support for the Taliban, but funds continued to flow including some as charitable contributions that were redirected to military purposes.

Within a month of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon the US had convinced NATO to invoke Article 5 of its charter, which allows a collective response in self defense, and on October 7 the US and allied forces launched an attack on Afghanistan. Within two months the Taliban had been removed from power, and Bin Laden's al Qaeda largely driven into Pakistan. At a UN-sponsored conference in Bonn, Germany, behind-the-scenes maneuvering by the US led to Hamid Karzai's selection as interim leader of Afghanistan. From 2002 to 2008 US-led forces focused on defeating the Taliban and rebuilding Afghan institutions, and from 2008 on protecting the population and reintegrating insurgents into Afghan society. On May 1, 2011 US forces killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. The formal US and NATO combat mission in Afghanistan ended in December 2014.

Trump

On April 13, 2017, the Trump administration dropped the US's largest non-nuclear bomb on a suspected Islamic State stronghold in Afghanistan's Nangarhar Province. The  Pentagon subsequently revealed that Trump had authorized then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to send several thousand additional troops to Afghanistan. The escalation represented a reversal of Trump's publicly announced position from 2012 when he advocated getting out.

A week later the Taliban carried out what the Washington Post called "the single deadliest attack against Afghan security forces since the beginning of the war." A dozen fighters infiltrated a base near the city of Mazar-e Sharif with suicide vests and small arms, killing at least 140 Afghans and wounding 60. Speaking to reporters a few days later Gen. John Nicholson, then commander of US forces in Afghanistan, confirmed that Russians were supplying the Taliban with weapons and materiel.

On February 7, 2018 US troops and Syrian allies came under attack near the Syrian town of Deir al-Zour. They counterattacked, killing approximately 100 people. Subsequently the US learned that the dead included Russian mercenaries, making the incident the deadliest between the US and Russia since the end of the Cold War. The Russians were identified as belonging to a mercenary company named Wagner, connected to Putin crony and oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Prigozhin was among 13 suspects indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller in connection with "information warfare" ahead of the 2016 election.

In March 2018 Gen. Nicholson told the BBC that Russian weapons were being smuggled across Afghanistan's border with Tajikistan, calling it a "destabilizing influence."

The Bounty Operation

On April 8, 2019 three Marines were killed in a suicide car bombing near Bagram airbase. According to the Associated Press (AP),  intelligence in 2019 and 2020 obtained from captured Taliban militants from different parts of Afghanistan pointed to the possibility that bounties offered by Russian intelligence operatives for killing US servicemen may have been a factor in the attack. The intelligence suggested that the "bounty operation" may have been underway as early as 2018. According to the Washington Post and the AP, the bounties were discussed within the National Security Council (NSC) staff, and the intelligence community and Central Command were instructed to "find out more" before taking any  action.

In October 2019 the US, Russia, China, and Pakistan signed a "Joint Statement on Peace in Afghanistan" that included a promise to "observe a ceasefire for the duration of intra-Afghan negotiations to enable participants to reach agreement on a political roadmap for Afghanistan’s future."

In early 2020 members of the Naval Special Warfare Development Group (a.k.a Seal Team 6) raided a Taliban outppost and recovered roughly $500,000, adding to the US intellience community's suspicions that Russian entities had offered financial incentives to the Taliban and others in Afghanistan. The information reached the NSC in February, and according to two officials interviewed by the NY Times was included in the written Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) on or about February 27; the AP also reported that Trump had been briefed on the matter.  Trump is known not to read the PDB.

On February 29 the US and the Taliban reached a preliminary peace agreement, including a temporary cease-fire, US  commitment to draw down its forces, and Taliban commitment begin negotiations with the Afghan government and not participate in terrorism.

In late March the NSC convened an interagency meeting to discuss the Russian bounties. "An operation to incentivize the killing of American and other NATO troops would be a significant and provocative escalation of what American and Afghan officials have said is Russian support for the Taliban," NY Times reporters wrote, and would represent a major change in Russia's "so-called hybrid war" against the US, which heretofore had been limited to tactics such as cyberattacks, fake news dissemination, and "deniable military operations." Intelligence officials were unclear as to Russian motivation. Some speculated that the bounties were retaliation for the February 2018 deaths of Wagner mercenaries in Syria, noted above; others suggested they were a more general effort to derail US-Taliban peace talks.

CIA officials tasked with assessing the bounty-related intelligence concluded that it was credible. According to the Washington Post, the National Security Agency (NSA), which studies intercepted communications, was more skeptical of the information and its sources, although the extent of  disagreement with the CIA may have been exaggerated by the Trump administration. The information was included in the May 4 CIA World Intelligence Review ("The Wire") -- an intelligence information digest circulated to government agencies and some members of Congress.

Trump's public statements continued to highlight his rosy relationship with Russia, and especially Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the April 18 coronavirus briefing he declared "I have a very good relationship with Putin." In March Trump had asserted that New York didn't need ventilators, but on a May 7 phone call with Putin offered to send them to Russia; Putin accepted. Apparently referring to the call at a meeting with Republican members of Congress  the next day, Trump said "We had no calls from Russia for years. And all of a sudden, we have this great friendship. And, by the way, getting along with Russia is a great thing, getting along with Putin and Russia is a great thing." And at a press gaggle on May 21, Trump declared "Russia and us have developed a very good relationship. As you know, we worked on the oil problem together. I think we have a very good relationship with Russia."

On Saturday, May 30, Trump revealed that he had canceled the upcoming G7 summit, originally scheduled for June 10-12 at Camp David, after a phone call with German chancellor Angela Merkel in which she characterized the conference as a health risk. Trump announced plans to reschedule the meeting for the same timeframe as the annual UN General Assembly meeting usually held in September, but with an expanded membership including Australia, South Korea, India -- and Russia. The surprise proposed inclusion of Russia was likely to be controversial, as Russia has been excluded from similar summits ince its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

At a town hall meeting in Green Bay, WI hosted by Fox News's Sean Hannity on June 25, Trump proclaimed "I was tougher on Russia than any president that’s ever lived — any president. Nobody has done what I’ve done with sanctions and all.”

Revelation

The next day the NY Times broke the story of the Russian bounty operation. On Tuesday, June 30, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace confirmed having seen US intelligence reports on the program. NATO officials told Business Insider that they had been briefed during the previous week. Emerging evidence suggested that it was the work of Russian military intelligence (GRU) Unit 29155. Unit 29155 is believed to have been behind several Russian covert operations, including an attempted coup in Montenegro in 2016, and the unsuccessful attempt to assassinate former Russian spy Sergei Skirpal in the UK in 2018

The AP subsequently reported that intelligence about the bounty program had been included in "at least one" written briefing in 2019, and that then-National Secuitsy Advisor John Bolton told colleagues he had briefed Trump about it in March 2019. Disagreements with Trump over what Bolton considered Russia's "global aggressions" were a factor in his ouster on September 10, 2019 although it is not known whether the bounty program specifically was a contributing element.

At a press briefing on June 29 in apparent contradiction to Trump's initial claim that the Russian bounty story was a hoax, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters that Trump had not been briefed about it because the intelligence had not been verified.  The next day she reversed herself, indicating that Trump had been briefed, but claimed that the intelligence community still had doubts about the veracity of the reports.

At the interagency meeting in March described in the NY Times initial report of June 26 a range of options had been discussed "starting with making a diplomatic complaint to Moscow and a demand that it stop, along with an escalating series of sanctions and other possible responses." As of this writing the White House has yet to authorize any action.